Investigating racial disparities in violence risk assessment using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide-Version 3 (SARA-V3): Structured professional judgment ratings and recidivism among Indigenous and non-Indigenous individuals.

Racial disparities in criminal justice outcomes are widely observed. In Canada, such disparities are particularly evident between Indigenous and non-Indigenous persons. The role of formal risk assessment in contributing to such disparities remains a topic of interest to many, but critical analysis has almost exclusively focused on actuarial or statistical risk measures. Recent research suggests that ratings from other common tools, based on the structured professional judgment model, can also demonstrate racial disparities. This study examined risk assessments produced using a widely used structured professional judgment tool, the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide-Version 3, among a sample of 190 individuals with histories of intimate partner violence. We examined the relationships among race, risk factors, summary risk ratings, and recidivism while also investigating whether participants' racial identity influenced the likelihood of incurring formal sanctions for reported violence. Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide-Version 3 risk factor totals and summary risk ratings were associated with new violent charges. Indigenous individuals were assessed as demonstrating more risk factors and were more likely to be rated as high risk, even after controlling for summed risk factor totals and prior convictions. They were also more likely to recidivate and to have a history of at least one reported act of violence that did not result in formal sanctions. The results suggest that structured professional judgment guidelines can produce disparate results across racial groups. The disparities observed may reflect genuine differences in the likelihood of recidivism, driven by psychologically meaningful risk factors which have origins in deep-rooted systemic and contextual factors. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

People underestimate the errors made by algorithms for credit scoring and recidivism prediction but accept even fewer errors.

This study provides the first representative analysis of error estimations and willingness to accept errors in a Western country (Germany) with regards to algorithmic decision-making systems (ADM). We examine people's expectations about the accuracy of algorithms that predict credit default, recidivism of an offender, suitability of a job applicant, and health behavior. Also, we ask whether expectations about algorithm errors vary between these domains and how they differ from expectations about errors made by human experts. In a nationwide representative study (N = 3086) we find that most respondents underestimated the actual errors made by algorithms and are willing to accept even fewer errors than estimated. Error estimates and error acceptance did not differ consistently for predictions made by algorithms or human experts, but people's living conditions (e.g. unemployment, household income) affected domain-specific acceptance (job suitability, credit defaulting) of misses and false alarms. We conclude that people have unwarranted expectations about the performance of ADM systems and evaluate errors in terms of potential personal consequences. Given the general public's low willingness to accept errors, we further conclude that acceptance of ADM appears to be conditional to strict accuracy requirements.

A scalable empathic supervision intervention to mitigate recidivism from probation and parole.

Incarceration is a pervasive issue in the United States that is enormously costly to families, communities, and society at large. The path from prison back to prison may depend on the relationship a person has with their probation or parole officer (PPO). If the relationship lacks appropriate care and trust, violations and recidivism (return to jail or prison) may be more likely to occur. Here, we test whether an "empathic supervision" intervention with PPOs-that aims to reduce collective blame against and promote empathy for the perspectives of adults on probation or parole (APPs)-can reduce rates of violations and recidivism. The intervention highlights the unreasonable expectation that all APPs will reoffend (collective blame) and the benefits of empathy-valuing APPs' perspectives. Using both within-subject (monthly official records for 10 mo) and between-subject (treatment versus control) comparisons in a longitudinal study with PPOs in a large US city (NPPOs = 216; NAPPs =∼20,478), we find that the empathic supervision intervention reduced collective blame against APPs 10 mo postintervention and reduced between-subject violations and recidivism, a 13% reduction that would translate to less taxpayer costs if scaled. Together, these findings illustrate that very low-cost psychological interventions that target empathy in relationships can be cost effective and combat important societal outcomes in a lasting manner.

Employing standardized risk assessment in pretrial release decisions: Association with criminal justice outcomes and racial equity.

OBJECTIVE: We examined efforts by a Mississippi court to base pretrial release decisions on risk assessment rather than primarily on bond. HYPOTHESES: (a) Pretrial detention will be shorter than that associated with prevailing bond practices in the same counties. (b) Rearrest rates will be lower than a similar pretrial population in a nearby southern state. (c) False positive rates for predicting rearrests will be higher for African American than Caucasian participants. (d) Pretrial detention will be longer for African American participants because of higher risk scores or assessment overrides. METHOD: Pretrial defendants (N = 521) completed the Risk and Needs Triage (RANT) within 2 weeks of arrest, and outcomes examined included the length of pretrial detention, index case dispositions, and rearrest rates. RESULTS: (a) Pretrial detention averaged approximately 60 days compared with prevailing detentions averaging approximately 90 and 180 days in the same counties. (b) Pretrial rearrest rates were 17 percentage points higher than a similar pretrial population; however, representative comparison data are unavailable to confidently measure recidivism impacts. (c) Positive predictive power did not differ by race in predicting pretrial rearrests, SE = .04, 95% CI [.11, -.06], z = .61, p = .54, d = .08. (d) Despite comparable risk scores, African American participants were detained significantly longer than Caucasian participants (M = 60.92 vs. 45.58 days), p = .038, d = .18, 95% CI [.01, .36], and were less likely to receive a diversion opportunity (11% vs. 23%), p = .009, V = .17. CONCLUSION: The observational design precludes causal conclusions; however, risk assessment was associated with shorter pretrial detention than prevailing bond practices with no racial disparities in risk prediction. Greater attention to risk assessment may reduce racial inequities in pretrial conditions. Representative comparison data are needed to measure the recidivism impacts of pretrial reform initiatives. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) among a sample of Asian Canadian youth on probation.

OBJECTIVE: Although past studies suggest that the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY; Borum et al., 2006) has moderate predictive validity, its predictive validity with Asian youth in Western countries is unknown. We therefore compared the SAVRY's predictive validity in a sample of Asian Canadian versus White Canadian youth. HYPOTHESES: Given that the SAVRY is normed on samples comprising mostly youth who are White, we expected its predictive validity for recidivism would be lower for Asian Canadians than White Canadians. METHOD: We examined youth probation officers' SAVRY assessments for 573 youth (445 White Canadians, 56 East/Southeast Asian Canadians, and 72 South Asian Canadians) on community supervision (i.e. probation) in a Canadian province. Youth were prospectively followed for an average of 1.97 years (SD = 0.56 years) to determine if they were subsequently charged with violent or nonviolent offenses. RESULTS: Asian Canadians scored significantly lower on risk total scores compared to White Canadians. Predictive validity for violent and nonviolent recidivism fell in the medium to large range for East/Southeast Asian Canadians (AUCs = .69 to .89) and South Asian Canadians (AUCs = .64 to .83). In comparison, predictive validity for White Canadians was generally lower (AUCs = .63 to .77; small to large range). Risk total scores and nonviolent risk ratings significantly predicted nonviolent recidivism better for East/Southeast Asian Canadians (AUCs = .89 and .87, respectively) than White Canadians (AUCs = .77 and .71, respectively). Despite few significant differences between Asian subgroups, predictive validity for nonviolent risk ratings was significantly higher in East/Southeast Asian Canadians (AUC = .87) than South Asian Canadians (AUC = .64). CONCLUSIONS: The SAVRY may be a useful tool for predicting recidivism with Asian Canadians. However, future research should examine the SAVRY's predictive validity for youth of Asian descent in different countries and contexts. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Long-Term Predictive Validity of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II: Research and Practice Implications.

The current study evaluated the predictive validity of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II) scores in a sample of juveniles who recidivated sexually or nonsexually as adults. Participants included 166 juveniles who had previously sexually offended and were followed into adulthood for an average of 10.75 years. Results of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analyses supported the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II Total Score, Scale 1, and Static Score in regard to adult sexual recidivism, and predictive validity was found for all J-SOAP-II scores (except Scale 1) in regard to adult nonsexual recidivism. Implications for future research on the assessment of risk factors and treatment needs for adolescents who commit sexual offenses are discussed.

Risk assessment of criminal offenders in Ghana: An investigation of the discriminant validity of the HCR-20V3.

The frequency with which assessment for risk of criminal offending is requested across mental health and criminal justice systems in Western countries is historically unprecedented. However, information concerning risk assessment practices and research in Sub-Saharan Africa is virtually nonexistent. In filling this gap, the present study discusses the prospects and challenges of risk assessment for criminal offending in Ghana, focusing on the criminal justice system, mental health system, and institutional record keeping. Secondly, data obtained from interviewing prisoners, their parents/legal guardians, and prison officers were used to score the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 version 3 (HCR-20V3) to discriminate between recidivists (n = 60) and non-recidivists (n = 60). The results reveal significant and positive correlations between HCR-20V3 ratings and recidivism that ranged from 0.35 (clinical presence) to 0.69 (historical relevance). The area under curve (AUC) values of the HCR-20 ratings similarly ranged from 0.69 (clinical presence ratings) to 0.88 (historical presence ratings). The historical presence and relevance ratings achieve good and a near-balanced sensitivity and specificity (e.g., 75 versus 88), with the latter also adding incrementally to the discrimination. The clinical and risk management ratings, however, did not add incremental validity to the discrimination. Although the exclusion of the items measuring mental and personality disorders, the small sample size and the use of retrospective design have the potential to undermine the findings reported here, this preliminary study on structured risk assessment in Ghana demonstrates the feasibility of administering risk assessment instruments by interviewing multiple informants.

Youth and Young Adult Victims of Interpersonal Violence at LA County + USC Medical Center: A Review of Epidemiology and Recidivism.

Youth and young adult interpersonal violence (IPV) is a unique clinical challenge which merits study. This study defined the demographics and clinical outcomes of youth and young adult victims of IPV presenting to our hospital while examining violent injury recidivism. We reviewed patients aged 10 to 30 years admitted to our trauma bay as a victim of gunshot wound (GSW), stabbing wound, or blunt assault from 1998 to 2015 (n = 12,549). Logistic regression analysis was conducted to compare patient mortality across demographic characteristics, and Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine risk factors for recidivism. Male (92%) and Hispanic patients (75%) constituted the majority of admissions. We observed differences in the mortality rate by gender (9% in males vs 5% in females, P < 0.001), race/ethnicity (5% non-Hispanic white vs 9% Hispanic, P = 0.001), insurance status (3% insured vs 10% uninsured, P < 0.001), and mechanism of injury (13% GSW, 2% stabbing wound, and 0.3% blunt assault, P < 0.001). Male gender, younger age, GSW, and amphetamine placed patients at higher risk for IPV recidivism (P < 0.05). This study demonstrates the need to better understand how demographics and economics are associated with youth and young adult IPV. In addition, future IPV prevention and intervention initiatives can be tailored to suit the unique needs of our population.

A natural experiment study of the effects of imprisonment on violence in the community.

One of the goals of imprisonment is to reduce violence1. Although imprisonment has risen dramatically since the 1970s, its effects on future violent crime are poorly understood2. This study's objective was to examine the effect of imprisonment on violent crime in the community among individuals on the policy margin between prison and probation sentences. Drawing on data from a population-based cohort of individuals convicted of a felony in Michigan between 2003 and 2006 (n = 111,110) and followed through June 2015, we compared the rates of commission of violent crime committed by individuals sentenced to prison with those of individuals sentenced to probation using a natural experiment based on the random assignment of judges to criminal cases. Being sentenced to prison had no significant effects on arrests or convictions for violent crimes after release from prison, but imprisonment modestly reduced the probability of violence if comparisons included the effects of incapacitation during imprisonment. These results suggest that for individuals on the current policy margin between prison and probation, imprisonment is an ineffective long-term intervention for violence prevention, as it has, on balance, no rehabilitative or deterrent effects after release.

Women Released From Custody: Investigating Risk Factors and Reoffending.

This article draws on life-course and desistance theory to explore the relationship between the factors of age, ethnicity, offence type, and incarceration history for a sample of 1,035 women released from custody between January 2013 and January 2014, data gathered from the Australian Queensland Corrective Services administrative dataset. It also explores their impact on recidivism and the time between release and reoffending (known as "time to failure") until September 2017. The data indicate substantial rates of reoffending with 70% of the sample reoffending (a return to custody/parole/probation) within the 2- to 4-year observation period. Notably, 50% of women reoffended in their first year post-release, 36% within 6 months, and 23% within the first 3 months. Regression results show that violent offenders are considerably more likely to be recidivists and older offenders are less likely to be recidivists; Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander offenders were also more likely to reoffend. Incarceration history is significantly associated with reoffending and "time to failure". It is clear that there needs to be increased intervention and support for female offenders during the first 2 years post-release from custody. This is particularly important for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women and those with an extensive history of incarceration.

Understanding Sex Offender Community Supervision: A Mixed Methods Approach.

The process of transitioning from prison to the community poses unique challenges for those who have been convicted of sexually based offenses. Due to the realities associated with the unique challenges facing these individuals, the community supervision process fluctuates along the correctional continuum which polarizes rehabilitative and control. The current study examines how this fluctuation relates to both the supervision process and correctional outcomes. Furthermore, the literature suggests five specific checkpoints along this continuum which are measured both qualitatively and quantitatively. The five checkpoints are Social Reintegration, Community Reentry, Status Maintenance, Statutory Compliance, and Risk Management. Overall, all five checkpoints are included in some way in the community supervision process; and analyses show significant links between the checkpoints and correctional outcomes.

Lack of health insurance among juvenile offenders: a predictor of inappropriate healthcare use and reincarceration?

OBJECTIVES: Relationships between the health insurance status and healthcare use among justice-involved youths transitioning into adulthood is an underexplored topic, even if transition to adulthood is a crucial time period for healthcare outcomes. To fill in these knowledge gaps, this study had two aims: (1) to examine trajectories of health insurance coverage and healthcare use among serious juvenile offenders transitioning into adulthood; and (2) to explore associations between the lack of health insurance, healthcare use and reincarceration. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a secondary analysis on the data of the US longitudinal Pathways to Desistance study between ages 20 and 23 years (2000-2010). METHODS: Participant data on health insurance coverage, healthcare use, reincarceration and sociodemographic variables (n = 1215) were extracted and analysed using descriptive statistics, generalized linear regressions and cross-lagged panel models. RESULTS: About half of the young offenders had no health insurance coverage or intermittent coverage between the age of 20 and 23 years. Emergency services were used (≥17.4%), notably more by insured participants and were increasingly used over time. Being uninsured at the age of 20 years was associated with reincarceration at the age of 23 years (b = -0.052, p = 0.014, odd-ratio = 0.95), but incarceration at the age of 20 years did not predict the insurance status at the age of 23 years (b = 0.009, p = 0.792). CONCLUSIONS: Serious juvenile offenders, especially if uninsured, faced major barriers to accessing health care and often reported an inappropriate healthcare use. This likely led to reincarceration. The lack of continuity of care and of access to health care may, therefore, increase health disparities, and efforts are needed to mitigate detrimental outcomes, by effective in and out of detention coordination of health insurance coverage and among health services.

Misdemeanor Arrestees With Mental Health Needs: Diversion and Outpatient Services as a Recidivism Reduction Strategy.

Individuals with mental illnesses who are arrested for criminal activity cycle between criminal justice and mental health systems at disproportionately high rates. Studying recidivism of this population has been difficult due to separate system data bases. This study compared recidivism outcomes of 102 adults with mental illness who were arrested for a misdemeanor offense. One group had a diagnosed mental illness ( n = 58) and the other group was diagnosed with co-occurring mental health and substance abuse disorders ( n = 44). As a condition of their personal recognizance bond, both groups voluntarily agreed to stabilize on medication and report to community-based outpatient mental health clinic. Participants in both groups had fewer rearrests and fewer days in jail in the 12 months following discharge from diversion relative to the 12 months prior to diversion participation. Outpatient mental health service utilization following 24 hr in jail seems to be a viable means of reducing recidivism among accused misdemeanant defendants.

Predictive Validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool: Two and 5-Year Violent Recidivism in a Nationwide Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients.

This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] = .75) and 5 (AUC = .74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC = .62; discharge: AUC = .63) and 5 (admission: AUC = .69; discharge: AUC = .62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC = .71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC = .58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment.

The predictive properties of dynamic sex offender risk assessment instruments: A meta-analysis.

This meta-analysis is the first to our knowledge to evaluate the predictive properties of dynamic sex offender risk assessment instruments, which are designed to assess factors associated with recidivism that are amenable to change. Based on 52 studies (N = 13,446), we found that dynamic risk assessment instruments have small-to-moderate predictive properties, with Cohen's d ranging between 0.71 for sexual recidivism (41 studies, 22 unique samples, N = 5,699) and 0.43 for violent (including sexual) recidivism (27 studies, 14 unique samples, N = 10,368). Incremental predictive validity of dynamic over static risk assessment instruments was significant but modest; Cox hazard ratios varied between 1.08 for sexual recidivism (19 studies, 13 unique samples, N = 3,747) and 1.05 for any recidivism (11 studies, 8 unique samples, N = 2,511). Cox hazard ratios for the predictive validity of change scores on dynamic risk assessment instruments, controlling for static and initial dynamic scores, varied between 0.91 for sexual recidivism (6 studies, 6 unique samples, n = 1,980) and 0.95 for any recidivism (3 studies, 3 unique samples, n = 1,172). These findings indicate that dynamic risk assessment instruments can, in terms of Andrews and Bonta's (2010) risk and need principles, be a useful tool for improving sex offender treatment. They have the potential to contribute to the selection of appropriate, more individually tailored treatment approaches (focusing on individually relevant criminogenic need factors) and can assist in the evaluation of treatment effects. Considering this, further development of dynamic risk assessment instruments is warranted. (PsycINFO Database Record

Neighborhood Influences on Violent Reoffending Risk in Released Prisoners Diagnosed With Psychotic Disorders.

Released prisoners diagnosed with psychotic disorders have elevated rates of violent reoffending risk and their exposure to adverse neighborhood environments may contribute to this risk. We identified all released sentenced prisoners in Sweden between 2003 and 2013 (n = 47226) and followed them up for a median period of 4.4 years. We identified prisoners who had ever been diagnosed with a psychotic disorder (n = 3782) or prescribed antipsychotics (n = 7366). We examined 3 neighborhood characteristics: income, proportion of welfare recipients, and crime rate. By fitting generalized mixed-effects and negative binomial regression models and adopting within-individual designs that controlled for all time-invariant unmeasured confounders within each individual, we estimated neighborhood intraclass correlations (ICCs) and associations between specific neighborhood characteristics and violent reoffending. Neighborhood factors explained 13.5% (95% CI: 10.9%; 16.6%) of the violent reoffending risk among released prisoners diagnosed with psychotic disorders. This contrasted with 4.3% (95% CI: 3.7%; 4.9%) in all released prisoners. However, after controlling for unmeasured confounding, these estimates were not statistically significant (ICCpsychotic disorders = 0.9%; 95% CI: -0.8%; 2.3%; ICCall prisoners = 0.3%; 95% CI: -0.02%; 0.6%). Similarly, none of the within-individual correlations between the specific neighborhood factors and violent reoffending were significantly different from zero. We found consistent results when we investigated prisoners with other psychiatric and substance use disorders. These findings suggest that placing released prisoners with psychotic disorders in less deprived neighborhoods might not reduce their violent reoffending risk, which may also apply to other psychiatric disorders. The assessment, treatment, and community linkage of high-risk prisoners as a strategy to reduce reoffending needs further research.

Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record

Actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders: The psychometric properties of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG).

The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) is one of the most commonly used actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. The aims of the present field study were to examine the predictive validity of the German version of the SORAG and its individual items for different offender subgroups and recidivism criteria in sexual offenders released from the Austrian Prison System (N = 1,104; average follow-up period M = 6.48 years) within a prospective-longitudinal research design. For the prediction of violent recidivism the German version of the SORAG yielded an effect size of AUC = .74 (p < .001, 95% CI = .70-.78). The predictive accuracy for general and violent recidivism was slightly higher than for general sexual and sexual hands-on recidivism. The effect sizes were found to be higher for the child molester sample than for rapists. However, the differences were significant only for general recidivism (z = 2.48, p = .001). Further analyses exhibited the SORAG to have incremental predictive validity beyond the VRAG and the PCL-R, and to remain the only significant predictor for violent recidivism once all 3 instruments were forced into a combined regression model. Twelve out of the 14 SORAG items were found to have a significant positive relationship with violent recidivism. The comparison of the relative and absolute risk indices between the Austrian and the Canadian samples showed that the normative data distribution yielded more (absolute risk indices) or less (relative risk indices) meaningful differences between the 2 countries. (PsycINFO Database Record

Are risk assessments racially biased?: Field study of the SAVRY and YLS/CMI in probation.

Risk assessment instruments are widely used by juvenile probation officers (JPOs) to make case management decisions; however, few studies have investigated whether these instruments maintain their predictive validity when completed by JPOs in the field. Moreover, the validity of these instruments for use with minority groups has been called into question. This field study examined the predictive validity of both the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY; n = 383) and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI; n = 359) for reoffending when completed by JPOs. The study also compared Black and White youth to examine the presence of test bias. The SAVRY and YLS/CMI significantly predicted reoffending at the test level, with most of the variance in reoffending accounted for by dynamic risk scales not static scales. The instruments did not differentially predict reoffending as a function of race but Black youth scored higher than White youth on the YLS/CMI scale related to official juvenile history. The implications for use of risk assessments in the field are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record